After 54: '11 vs. '12

The Tigers were primed for a big win on Sunday. They honored Magglio Ordonez's retirement with a ceremony before the game. They were playing in front of their third consecutive packed crowd against the hated Yankees. They were coming off a dramatic win on Saturday featuring two absolute bombs by Miguel Cabrera and a walk-off sac fly by Omir Santos. And they had the BPIB (Best Pitcher in Baseball), Justin Verlander, on the mound. It was a golden opportunity to win a series against a team not named the Minnesota Twins or Pittsburgh Pirates. Yet, the team blew it by letting Phil Hughes throw the first 9-inning complete game of his career.

A look at the standings now finds the Tigers at 25-29, 6 games behind the scorching-hot White Sox and 3.5 back of the Cleveland Indians, who come to Comerica Park for a 3-game set starting tomorrow night. Looking back at my posts on this blog, I started out with a very positive tone (for good reason), but the Tigers just have not played up to expectations. It's getting frustrating to keep pointing out that baseball is a long season and the Tigers still have plenty of time to turn it around. At some point, the season won't be so long anymore, and they will actually have to turn it around.

Losing my patience, I decided to look back at the 2011 AL Central champion team to see where they sat after 54 games. How well was a 95-win team, that consisted of mainly the same players as the 2012 roster, performing at this time last year? Do fans still have reason to remain patient with this year's team? Here's a comparison of some basic stats after 54 games. The orange numbers favor that year's team.

The numbers show that after 54 games, the 2011 and 2012 teams are quite similar.  In '11, the Tigers had won 3 more games, scored one more run, and had a slightly lower WHIP.  However, the '12 team surprisingly has a higher average, OBP, SLG, and ERA, and has hit more HRs. 

Is this good news for hopeful Tigers fans?  It's hard to say.  The 2011 team, mediocre after 54 games, was actually pretty average throughout June and July as well.  Heading into August, they had a 57-51 record and a run differential of -6.  Doug Fister was acquired on July 30th, and the Tigers ran away with the division from that day forward, going 38-16 in August/September with an impressive run differential of +82.  So for the Tigers to repeat last year's pattern, they'll have to hang around .500 the next two months, make an impact deal or two towards the trade deadline, and play .700 baseball the rest of the way. 

However unrealistic that may seem, the Tigers are in danger of not even being able to complete the first part of that plan.  It's imperative to remain within striking distance of the White Sox and Indians, or else help at the trade dealine will be too little, too late.  The team should get a boost once their wounded (Jackson, Dirks, Fister, Avila, Laird, etc.) get healthy, and you never know, tomorrow could be the day they start turning the 2012 season around.  One can hope, right?