After 54: '11 vs. '12

The Tigers were primed for a big win on Sunday. They honored Magglio Ordonez's retirement with a ceremony before the game. They were playing in front of their third consecutive packed crowd against the hated Yankees. They were coming off a dramatic win on Saturday featuring two absolute bombs by Miguel Cabrera and a walk-off sac fly by Omir Santos. And they had the BPIB (Best Pitcher in Baseball), Justin Verlander, on the mound. It was a golden opportunity to win a series against a team not named the Minnesota Twins or Pittsburgh Pirates. Yet, the team blew it by letting Phil Hughes throw the first 9-inning complete game of his career.

A look at the standings now finds the Tigers at 25-29, 6 games behind the scorching-hot White Sox and 3.5 back of the Cleveland Indians, who come to Comerica Park for a 3-game set starting tomorrow night. Looking back at my posts on this blog, I started out with a very positive tone (for good reason), but the Tigers just have not played up to expectations. It's getting frustrating to keep pointing out that baseball is a long season and the Tigers still have plenty of time to turn it around. At some point, the season won't be so long anymore, and they will actually have to turn it around.

Losing my patience, I decided to look back at the 2011 AL Central champion team to see where they sat after 54 games. How well was a 95-win team, that consisted of mainly the same players as the 2012 roster, performing at this time last year? Do fans still have reason to remain patient with this year's team? Here's a comparison of some basic stats after 54 games. The orange numbers favor that year's team.

The numbers show that after 54 games, the 2011 and 2012 teams are quite similar.  In '11, the Tigers had won 3 more games, scored one more run, and had a slightly lower WHIP.  However, the '12 team surprisingly has a higher average, OBP, SLG, and ERA, and has hit more HRs. 

Is this good news for hopeful Tigers fans?  It's hard to say.  The 2011 team, mediocre after 54 games, was actually pretty average throughout June and July as well.  Heading into August, they had a 57-51 record and a run differential of -6.  Doug Fister was acquired on July 30th, and the Tigers ran away with the division from that day forward, going 38-16 in August/September with an impressive run differential of +82.  So for the Tigers to repeat last year's pattern, they'll have to hang around .500 the next two months, make an impact deal or two towards the trade deadline, and play .700 baseball the rest of the way. 

However unrealistic that may seem, the Tigers are in danger of not even being able to complete the first part of that plan.  It's imperative to remain within striking distance of the White Sox and Indians, or else help at the trade dealine will be too little, too late.  The team should get a boost once their wounded (Jackson, Dirks, Fister, Avila, Laird, etc.) get healthy, and you never know, tomorrow could be the day they start turning the 2012 season around.  One can hope, right?

Treading Water

After taking two of three from the Pirates last weekend, the Tigers traveled to Cleveland to face the division-leading Indians. A sweep would've put the Tigers in a tie for 1st place, and all would've been well again in TigerTown. Realistically, fans would have been pleased with taking two of three. Winning only one game would've been a major disappointment, seeing as Fister and Verlander were pitching the final two games of the series. A sweep was unthinkable. Unfortunately, a sweep is exactly what happened. The Tigers sat 6 games back of the Indians.

Thankfully for the Tigers, their next series was in Minnesota against the hapless Twins, and Detroit was able to pull itself back within a game of .500 by taking three of three. Cleveland, meanwhile, got knocked around by the red-hot White Sox, who now sit only .5 game behind the Indians. Detroit currently sits 4 games out of first place.

This team just seems to be treading water. They win one, lose one. Win a couple, lose a couple. Get swept, then sweep. I think everyone is waiting for them to go on a nice little run where they win 5 in a row, or 7 of 8, or win three consecutive series. Or how about winning 10 of 11, like Chicago has just done? Let's face it...the Tigers are incredibly fortunate to be playing in the AL Central, where they sit in 3rd place. They'd be in last place if they were in the AL East. In the AL West, they'd still be in 3rd, but they'd be 7.5 games back of the Rangers.

Despite all the worrying, complaining, and panic, we have to remind ourselves that the baseball season is incredibly long. The Tigers haven't even played 30% of their games yet. They still have 114 games to play. The only guarantee we can count on is that the standings are going to look a lot different three months from now.

Meanwhile, the Tigers are currently in the midst of a four-game set at Fenway Park in Boston. Justin Verlander takes the mound tonight and looks to continue his stellar start to the 2012 campaign. Detroit lost the opener yesterday after a blown call that had Jim Leyland fuming. Maybe Leyland's rant will get the troops fired up?

Who was better - Verlander or Scherzer?

Tigers fans were treated to two special pitching performances over the weekend. Justin Verlander came 1 bloop single away from pitching his 3rd career no-hitter on Friday night. Max Scherzer struck out 15 batters on Sunday, the highest total in all of MLB this season. Both were dominant performances, but which was better?

To start, I looked at a statistic ESPN.com uses called Game Score, which is calculated as follows: 50 + 1*Outs + 2*IP after the 4th + 1*K - 2*H - 4*ER - 2*UnearnedRuns - 1*BB. The idea is to use a formula that objectively ranks each individual pitching performance.

Let's start with Scherzer. He went 7 innings, allowed 4 hits, 1 walk, and 2 earned runs, and of course, struck out 15. This amounts to a Game Score of 75, which is pretty darn good, but not enough to crack the top 40 pitching performances on the season. While Scherzer was certainly dominant, his overall score is hurt by the fact that he only went 7 innings. Had he been able to pitch a complete game, it would've resulted in a score of 85, good enough to place him in the top 20.



Justin Verlander's gem on Friday, meanwhile, comes in at a 96, tied with Jered Weaver's no-hitter for 3rd and behind Matt Cain's one-hitter and Philip Humber's perfect game. Had Verlander been able to maintain the no-no, his 98 would've ranked as the best performance on the season.



While most fans would probably agree that JV's performance was more impressive than Scherzer's, it might not necessarily be more important. By now, we know what Verlander brings to the table. He is going to give you 6+ innings every single start and will usually be very stingy with the number of hits, walks, and runs he allows in the process. He is a no-hitter waiting to happen. Scherzer, on the other hand, is a mystery. He brings A+ stuff to the table but struggles to find consistency with his delivery. Sunday might be a sign that he has turned the corner. We can't expect 15 strikeouts every start, but Scherzer has supposedly worked out a mechanical flaw with the placement of his hands with Jeff Jones. If that is the case, he could make a very formidable #3 starter.

Either way, as a Tigers fan, it's a nice debate to be able to have. If we're having more debates like this one by the end of the season, it's probably a sign that the Tigers have done what they're expected to do...win the AL Central.

No offense, but there's no offense.

Most fans and analysts assumed the 2012 Detroit Tigers would have very solid starting pitching, a good enough bullpen, below average defense, and a world-class offense.  So far, the starting pitching has been quite good overall and the defense has been serviceable.  The bullpen has had too many late-inning meltdowns, but more than anything, it's been the offense that has underperformed.  When the bullpen must protect 3-2 and 2-1 leads night after night, it stands to reason that they're going to blow a few games.

Lineups along the lines of Jackson-Boesch-Cabrera-Fielder-Young-Raburn-Peralta-Avila-Santiago had Tigers fan salivating before the season began, but the offense has been extremely average so far.  Out of 14 AL teams, Detroit is only 8th in runs, 9th in OBP, and 7th in SLG.  Who's to blame?  Well, outside of Jackson, Fielder, Cabrera, and Avila, along with part-time contributions from Dirks and Laird, the whole roster has hit very weakly.  Peralta has a .676 OPS.  Young is at .605.  Boesch is at .568.  Raburn is at .383 (!).  Really, only Jackson has hit at an All-Star level, and that's just not going to cut it for a team with a payroll north of $119 million. 

Will it get better?  I think so.  Fielder and Cabrera have long track records of being two of the best offensive players in the game.  There are going to be stretches where those two alone carry the team on their backs, though we just haven't seen it yet.  Boesch and Raburn have nowhere to go but up.  Someone has to start hitting at 2nd base, right?  We may already be seeing signs of improvement, as the insertion of Dirks into the #2 slot in the lineup has injected some much-needed speed and energy to the top of the order.

As of now, the Tigers are 15-14 and only 2 games out of 1st place.  They wrap up their series with the Mariners tonight and travel to Oakland tomorrow for a 4-game set against Brandon Inge and the A's.  Hopefully the offense heats up soon...if not, the Tigers will need a few more plays like this game-saving gem by Don Kelly...

Five Biggest Disappointments

The Tigers sat at 10-7 as of my last post, but it wasn't really reason to panic.  Losing 3 out of 4 to a red-hot Rangers team isn't necessarily the end of the world.  However, the team has continued to lose, getting swept by the Mariners at home and dropping 2 out of 3 to the Yankees in the Bronx.  That impressive 9-3 start seems like ages ago as the team's record now sits at 11-11.  Yikes.

I am by no means panicking yet, as the calendar just flipped to May today.  There is still a ton of baseball to be played, and I still think the Tigers will win the division handily.  Their roster simply has more talent than those of the other AL Central teams.  That being said, these past few weeks have highlighted some flaws, and there are reasons for concern.  Here are my five most disappointing Tigers performers so far.  These are based on expectations going into the season.  For example, Daniel Schlereth has pitched very poorly, but who didn't see that one coming?

5. Brennan Boesch
Most Tigers fans expected big things from Boesch coming into 2012.  He had two fairly productive seasons under his belt and would now have the starting RF job locked up.  Batting 2nd in front of Miguel Cabrera, many predicted a breakout season from Boesch, but it hasn't quite worked that way so far.  The season is young, but a .607 OPS, 2 BBs, and 20 Ks isn't going to cut it.

4. Benoit/Valverde
The 8th/9th inning combo of Benoit and Valverde was nearly automatic in 2011.  Benoit struck out over a batting an inning, and Valverde was a perfect 49/49 in saves.  In 2012, there haven't been too many late-inning meltdowns that have fans calling for players' heads, but this duo has certainly not pitched well.  Benoit's WHIP stands at 2.25, and Papa Grande's is not much better at 1.86.

3. Anyone Playing 2nd Base
Ryan Raburn is batting .148.  Ramon Santiago is batting .158.  The now-departed Brandon Inge was batting .100.  The Tigers have plenty of quantity on their roster when it comes to rolling out options to play 2nd base, but they've yet to find any offensive production that can be considered quality.

2. Max Scherzer
I think Jim Leyland and Tigers fans are both getting tired of hearing how great Scherzer's "stuff" is when he takes the mound every fifth day.  At some point Mad Max has to find some consistency in his delivery so that his great stuff translates into great results.  We've seen Scherzer be dominant before, so it's not like it's impossible.  Still, that doesn't change the fact that he's been pretty terrible so far.

1. Delmon Young

Delmon is on this roster for his bat, which provided protection for Miguel Cabrera at the end of the season last year and was very valuable in the playoffs.  He's been mediocre at best at the plate this year, but that's not the reason Young is #1 on this list.  It's his incident last week in New York where he was arrested after allegedly being intoxicated, getting into a fight with tourists, and yelling anti-Semetic remarks.  The incident is embarrassing for the Tigers and resulted in a 7-game suspension.  It's a perfect symbol of how the past week has been for the Tigers - ugly.



Louis Lanzano - AP



Honorable Mention: Rick Porcello, Jhonny Peralta



Top Five Tigers So Far

After dropping tonight's game against the Mariners, Detroit falls to 10-7 and is now tied with the Indians and 1/2 game behind the White Sox, who are playing in Oakland tonight.  This still puts them on pace to win 95 games, which would probably be good enough for a playoff spot, but is not as impressive as the 112 wins I half-jokingly predicted in my last post.


Courtesy of ESPN.com

The Tigers have now lost 4 of their last 5 and are struggling to find any semblance of that dynamic offense we saw in the season-opening series against the Red Sox.  Nevertheless, I'll try to stay on the positive side tonight and point out who I believe have been the top 5 performers for the Tigers so far in the early-going.

5. Duane Below
The 26 year-old left hander has been a pleasant surprise out of the bullpen.  He has yet to give up a run in 10 innings of work while striking out 7 and walking none.

4. Austin Jackson
Jackson has cooled off after his hot start but is still third on the team with a .355 OBP.  His 10 walks lead the team, and his defense in center field is as valuable as ever on a roster otherwise filled with less-than-stellar defenders.

3. Drew Smyly
Smyly has been just what the doctor ordered pitching out of the 5th spot in the Tigers starting rotation.  He's struck out 15 in 16 innings of work, has looked better with every start, and his 1.13 ERA leads the American League.

2. Miguel Cabrera
Leads all Tigers hitters in HRs, RBIs, and OPS, yet there is still the feeling that he hasn't even broken out yet.  No surprise to find Miggy here at #2.

1. Justin Verlander
It's also no surprise to find Verlander at #1. The 2011 AL MVP seems to have broken his history of poor Aprils, as he finds himself third in the AL in Innings Pitched, ERA, and WHIP, and 1st in Strikeouts. 

Honorable Mention: Alex Avila, Prince Fielder, Octavio Dotel

The Tigers now face Seattle Wednesday and Thursday before heading to New York for a weekend series against the Yankees.

Mark my words...the Tigers will win 112 games.

Alright, maybe 112 wins is a bit of a stretch...but after starting the season 7-3, the Tigers are on pace to finish 112-50.  So far, the team has swept the Red Sox, taken two of three from the Rays, salvaged a road win against the White Sox in Chicago, and taken the first from a three-game set against the Royals.  Can't really complain about that. 


Ed Zurga/Getty Images



Justin Verlander has picked up right where he left off in his MVP season last year, notching his first win of the season Monday night and pitching at least 8 innings in each of his three starts.  There's no reason to believe JV can't win another Cy Young this season, and he has the potential to toss a no-hitter every time he takes the mound.  Detroit fans shouldn't take for granted that they get to watch this guy pitch every 5th day; he truly is a once-in-a-generation talent. 



Could this be the year Rick Porcello lives up to the promise he showed in his 2009 season, when he finished 3rd in AL Rookie of the Year voting?  So far, that seems to be the case.  "Kid Rick" has gone 7+ innings in both of his starts, giving up only 3 earned runs in the process.  Though the season is still quite young, Porcello looks to be benefiting from mixing in 4-seam fastballs with his trademark sinker.  It's a good thing too, because Doug Fister hit the DL after only throwing 3.2 innings, and Max Scherzer currently sports a 10.38 ERA.  Also helping to cushion the blow are rookie left-handers Doug Smyly and Adam Wilk, who have been solid making their first ever MLB starts.

As far as the bullpen goes...well, if you're analyzing relief pitchers only 10 games into the season, you're looking at a very small sample size, so there aren't many insightful conclusions that can be gleaned...though Jose Valverde's shaky start is at least worth keeping an eye on.

The lineup, on the other hand, has pretty much lived up to its billing, as the Tigers are 3rd in the AL with 51 runs scored.  Prince Fielder is batting .324, Alex Avila has a .996 OPS, and Miguel Cabrera, despite a current 0-19 slide, is tied for 4th in the AL with 9 RBIs.  Yet it's Austin Jackson, coming off a season in which he struck out 181 times, who has been the best offensive performer for the Tigers so far.  A-Jax already has 2 homeruns on the season to go with a .405 average, and most importantly in my eyes, has walked 8 times versus 11 strikeouts.  Jackson clearly is benefiting from eliminating his leg kick in the offseason, and if he can continue to get on base and work pitch counts, this Tigers offense is going to wreak a lot of havoc on opposing pitching staffs.

Tonight, the Tigers send Smyly to the mound against Kansas City Royals left-hander Bruce Chen.  After finishing the series Wednesday night, the team will have a tough 4-game homestand against the Texas Rangers.  Here's to the Tigers maintaining (or improving upon!) their 112-win pace!