Monday, May 21, 2012

Who was better - Verlander or Scherzer?

Tigers fans were treated to two special pitching performances over the weekend. Justin Verlander came 1 bloop single away from pitching his 3rd career no-hitter on Friday night. Max Scherzer struck out 15 batters on Sunday, the highest total in all of MLB this season. Both were dominant performances, but which was better?

To start, I looked at a statistic ESPN.com uses called Game Score, which is calculated as follows: 50 + 1*Outs + 2*IP after the 4th + 1*K - 2*H - 4*ER - 2*UnearnedRuns - 1*BB. The idea is to use a formula that objectively ranks each individual pitching performance.

Let's start with Scherzer. He went 7 innings, allowed 4 hits, 1 walk, and 2 earned runs, and of course, struck out 15. This amounts to a Game Score of 75, which is pretty darn good, but not enough to crack the top 40 pitching performances on the season. While Scherzer was certainly dominant, his overall score is hurt by the fact that he only went 7 innings. Had he been able to pitch a complete game, it would've resulted in a score of 85, good enough to place him in the top 20.



Justin Verlander's gem on Friday, meanwhile, comes in at a 96, tied with Jered Weaver's no-hitter for 3rd and behind Matt Cain's one-hitter and Philip Humber's perfect game. Had Verlander been able to maintain the no-no, his 98 would've ranked as the best performance on the season.



While most fans would probably agree that JV's performance was more impressive than Scherzer's, it might not necessarily be more important. By now, we know what Verlander brings to the table. He is going to give you 6+ innings every single start and will usually be very stingy with the number of hits, walks, and runs he allows in the process. He is a no-hitter waiting to happen. Scherzer, on the other hand, is a mystery. He brings A+ stuff to the table but struggles to find consistency with his delivery. Sunday might be a sign that he has turned the corner. We can't expect 15 strikeouts every start, but Scherzer has supposedly worked out a mechanical flaw with the placement of his hands with Jeff Jones. If that is the case, he could make a very formidable #3 starter.

Either way, as a Tigers fan, it's a nice debate to be able to have. If we're having more debates like this one by the end of the season, it's probably a sign that the Tigers have done what they're expected to do...win the AL Central.

2 comments:

  1. Im just glad that the little tweek to Scherzer's delivery had made such a difference. We have a pretty good top 3 with Justin, Max, and Fister. And if Porcello can become a little more reliable and steady, a great top 4.

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  2. Yea, Max has been much better lately. I feel a little more confident with him on the mound...not expecting him to stike out 15 every outing, but I feel like we have a solid chance to win at least. Porcello was effective against the Yankees, but the story with both of these guys is inconsistency. Really need Fister back and healthy. Smyly has cooled off but is still fine as far as 5th starters go.

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